Some thoughts on the Oscar Nominations - part 1

So the nominations for the Oscars were announced at the beginning of the week and here are some thoughts on who's on the list, who should have been on the list and who's likely to win in the main categories:

Best Actor
Javier Baardem (Biutiful)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
The only real surprise on the list is Franco, whilst Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine) and Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter) are by all accounts unlucky to miss out. Maybe Franco gets a complementary nod for being the host (but then why no nod for his perhaps more deserving co-host, Anne Hathaway). I've not seen Biutiful or True Grit yet, but Baardem is one of the best in the business at the moment and will undountedly deserve the nod. However, as last year the contest is seen as being Bridges vs Firth and as Oscar likes to even things up, Firth is probably a fairly good bet. If there was to be an upset, Eisenberg would be the dark horse in the pack and more recognition would not be undeserved.

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids are Alright)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
The selections here seem about right. The most notable absentee is probably Andrew Garfield for The Social Network who I would probably have picked ahead of Ruffalo (who is a fine actor, but hardly stretching himself in this particular role). Given that the academy sometimes use the supporting categories to recognise films that otherwise don't quite get the praise they should, Hawkes shouldn't be ruled out, but in all probability this will come down to Bale vs Rush. I'd like to see Rush make it a double with Firth for The Kings Speech, but have a feeling the academy might go with Bale in what is, rather incredibly, his first nomination.

Best Actress
Annete Benning (The Kids are Alright)
Nicole Kidman (The Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
A much stronger field than it is some years. Julianne Moore can feel a bit unlucky to miss out as she was every bit as good as Benning in The Kids are Alright. Williams is already starting to get the sense that she must win one sometime soon, but this won't be her year. Lawrence is deservedly recognised and Kidman can never be discounted, but favourite has got to be Portman who does seem that little bit ahead of the field.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The Kings Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Difficult to comment much as The Kings Speech is the only one of these films that I've seen yet. Techinically speaking Steinfeld shouldn't be in this category as hers is clearly a leading role, but that's studio politics pushing into the wrong categories in order to get a nomination. Given that its Adams' third nomination in five years, I have this feeling that she might get the prize this time.

Best Animated Film
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Interesting side-fact - the Academy were limited to three nominees as only 15 eligible films were out forward, if there had been an extra one, there would have been 5 nominees, with probably Tangled and Despicable Me added to the list. As it is, I think they've got the right three.  Toy Story 3 will almost certainly win for two reasons - 1, its also nominated for Best Film (take the hint); 2, its's made by Pixar and you have to go back to 2006 for a year when Pixar failed to win (the Academy inexplicably gave the statue to Happy Feet). However, The Illusionist would be a worthy winner should they decide to stick up for hand-drawn illustrations.