Oldham East and Saddleworth - the Verdict

So the results are in and to nobody's great surprise (and my disappointment) Labour held the seat quite comfortably. So, what does it tell us? Not much really, but here are my thoughts on how each party will be feeling - ranked not according to where they finished, but how happy they will be with it:


1. Labour 42.1% (+10.2) A solid win, an increased majority - its hard to see them losing this seat at the next election now. So basically they've got away with Woolas' dirty tactics.

2. UKIP 5.8% (+1.9) A solid increase in their vote, they beat the BNP into 4th and saved their deposit (a rare achievement in a by-election). They should be very happy with that.

3. Lib-Dems 31.9% (+0.3) They failed to take the seat, but did increase their vote share despite their woeful current standing in the national polls and the fact that, contrary to previous ideas, Tories clearly do sometimes vote tactically might offer them some hope in other areas.

4. Official Monster Raving Loonie Party 0.4% (+0.4%) They didn't finish in the bottom three. Must be happy with that.

5. Green Party 1.5% (+1.5%) 6th place was the best they could hope for realistically, its an Ok performance in an area they have no track record and apparently their candidate did very well at the hustings, which might stand him on good stead for a run in more favourable territory.

6. Pirate 0.3% (+0.3%) Didn't come last.

7. Bus Pass Elvis 0.2% (+0.2%) Did come last, but probably expected little else.

8. BNP 4.5% (-1.2%) Worst ever result in the seat, lost their deposit and finished behind UKIP (which they hate) who should no go on to establish themselves as the right-wing protest party of choice in the area.

9. Conservatives 12.8% (-13.6%) Lost over half their support and are now no longer in a position where they could realistically argue they could challenge for the seat. Dropped to about 13% in an area where half the seat had a Tory MP until 1995. However Cameron might be quite pleased that the result will shore up Clegg for a while. The local party will be less impressed.

10. English Democrats 0.4% (+0.4%) Not too good to finish behind the Loonies and well behind the other right-wing protest parties.

Next-up will probably be Barnsley Central following the Labour MP pleading guilty to expenses fraud. Should be another comfortable Labour hold despite the former MP's corruption. Its another area where the BNP performed well in May last year, so will be interesting to see if they fall back again. There will also be an election in Belfast West as soon as the Irish general election is called as Gerry Adams will be standing down to contest South of the border. He had 55% majority in May, so difficult to see that being anything other than a Sinn Fein hold.