Political Predictions for 2011.

Just for a bit of fun at the start of the year, I'm going to share some thoughts on how things may go at the polls this year.

The first major test for the big parties will of course be the

Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election.
 Having previously said that I could see any of the big three parties winning this, I now think that things are (unfortunately) leaning towards a Labour win. I say unfortunately not for party political reasons, but because I would like to see the electorate punish the party and not just the individual for the types of wrongdoing that Mr Woolas perpetrated. However, it looks like Labour will get away with it, probably with an increased majority. With the current state of the polls (Lib-Dems possibly down to around 8% nationally (depending on polling company)), the Conservatives being slightly less than whole-hearted in their campaigning and the final weeks of the campaign likely to be dominated by the VAT rise and George Osborne, there is little playing in the Coalition parties favour here.

Almost as interesting as the main battle, will be the performance of the minor parties. With 7 other candidates standing it will be hard for any to save their deposit (5% of the vote required). I wouldn't expect the Greens to do well - this is not their area. Anything much above 1.5% for them will be a good result (and undoubtedly bad for the Lib-Dems as it would probably mean a significant loss of disaffected yellows). The BNP probably stand the best chance of saving their deposit - they polled 11% here in 2001 and saved their deposit at last year's general election. However, support for UKIP has been growing in the area and they stand a chance of pipping Griffin's racists for 4th place. I'm not usually one to cheer on UKIP, but in this particular case, I'll make an exception. In fact it would be nice to see the BNP come behind the Loonies, but it ain't going to happen. My prediction of the result (offered elsewhere) is:

Labour  35.2%
LD 29.8%
Con 22.8%
BNP 4.7%
UKIP 3.5%
English Democrats 1.6%
Green 1.2%
Official Monster Raving Loony Party 0.7%
Pirate 0.3%
Church of the Militant Elvis 0.2%

Local Elections in May
The local elections will probably be more good news for Labour, but Ed Milliband shouldn't get too excited just yet. MOst seats up for grabs this year were last contested in 2007 which was very bad year for Labour. The kind of year where an unpopular government loses council seats that under more normal circumstances they would hold quite easily. Therefore it would only be natural to expect that now, with Labour in opposition, many hundreds of those seats will be won back from the Tories and Lib-Dems. For the Lib-Dems it might be a particularly grim night. They might hold up, or even make some progress against the Tories in the rural South and South-West, but in the North and especially the urban areas like Liverpool and Newcastle, where they had been making inroads for the last decade or so, Lib-Dem councillors will fall in large numbers.

Welsh Assembly
Wales is also likely to be grim for the Lib-Dems in May. Latest opinion polls show that they may be reduced to just one or two assembly seats. In fact, the last poll would have them coming behind the Communist party in one of the regional lists! Labour will make gains, plaid will stand still, The Tories might go either up or down but not hugely, and there is a slim chance that UKIP might just gain their first ever AM. At the end of the day, I reckon Labour will either just achieve or just fall short of an overall majority. Either way I would expect them to go it alone in government rather than continuing the present coalition with Plaid.

Sottish Parliament
Labour should also again become the largest party in the Scottish parliament. This isn't saying much as they require only a swing of 1 seat from the results of a bad year. I would expect them to finish 10-20 seats ahead of the SNP this time. The Tories might lose a seat or two, but I would expect generally they will lose a few constituencies but make it up on the list vote and finish just down on the current levels. The Lib-Dems will also be reduced, but not as badly as Wales (their strength in some parts is, I reckon, too historically entrenched) and they may finish with about 10 seats or so. The Greens will pick up a few extra, probably finihing with 4-5, maybe even up to 6 or 7. Again, I would expect Labour to try and govern as a minority, but it would certainly be in the Lib-Dems interests to make them a coalition offer they couldn't refuse.

The AV Referendum
Tough one to predict this - if Labour take the lead in the yes campaign they may just swing it against a Tory no campaign, but Labour are from united behind AV, so at the moment I'm predicting this might a narrow No vote, which in itself I wouldn't be too bothered about, except that I think it will mean the end of any prospect of electoral reform for Westminster for at least another 10-15 years and that would be a shame and an opportunity missed.