Looking forward to 2012 politically

Continuing the blog re-launch and switching to my other obsession. After looking back on 2011 cinematically, let's look forward to 2012 politically.

Truth be told, with the exception of the forthcoming City of Edinburgh Council elections (of which more later) the more interesting and meaningful elections this year are probably happening in other parts of the world, so I'm unapologetic about a slightly international flavour to this post, starting across the pond.

US Presidential Election
The year long roadshow has already started with the first Republican caucus in Iowa on Tuesday. Theoretically, Obama should be facing a tough re-election bid with the US economy struggling in the mire and relatively low approval ratings for the president himself. Of course, that would be dependant on the Republicans having a credible candidate and there is the nub of the matter.

Already retired from the race is Michelle Bachman - a rabid Tea-party-er (think Sarah Palin without any redeeming features). The winner in Iowa, Mitt Romney, won by a massive 0.01% of the total vote (hardly a ringing endorsement). He's probably the most moderate of the bunch with the possibility to appeal to the centre ground, but he's also a mormon and that ain't going to sit well with the Party's evangelical bible-belt base who could just sit at home were he the candidate, giving Obama crucial Mid-West swing states.

The man he narrowly beat, Rick Santorum, is much more on the right with some pretty hard-line views on things like homosexuality, abortion, etc... so much so that some naughty satirists came up with a new meaning for the word Santorum just to offend him (although I'd advise you not to google it). Like most of the other candidates, might galvanise the base but lose the rest of the country. Also still in the race are Ron Paul (a bit of a maverick with some allegations of racism in a publication he was responsible hanging over his head) and Newt Gingrich who's just pretty objectionable and Rick Perry.

Any of these could yet win the candidature (but are unlikely to win the presidency), or we could head into the Republican party convention with it all undecided (what is known as a brokered convention) in which case an as-yet-undeclared candidate may emerge from the floor - Jeb Bush is being mentioned. Whatever, I would expect Obama to be re-elected fairly comfortable although not with the landslide of 2008.

French Presidential Elections.
Another electorate facing a pretty poor choice this year are the French. Their presidential election (over two rounds) seems almost inevitably to come down to a choice between Sarkozy and socialist candidate Francois Hollande. Hollande is maintaining a healthy (but slightly shrinking lead) in the polls and the conventional wisdom is that Sarkozy is a goner. This would fit - across Europe almost every government that was in power when the financial crisis hit has been voted out at the first opportunity. The problem is that nobody (maybe not even Hollande himself) sees him as a president. He's more of a nearly man, who's been around for a long time without ever really achieving high office or anything spectacular. This might come into play more as the campaign progresses and I wouldn't be surprised to see Sarkozy pull back and maybe even pull of the big shock and win.

Of the other contenders, it seemed at one point last year that Front National leader Marine Le Pen might challenge Sarkozy for a place in the second round, but she seems to be fading away a bit. Centrist Francois Bayrou seems to enjoying something of a bounce and might catch Le Pen for third, but that's about his limit, whilst Left Front (Communist) Melanchon, Green Joly and fromer Sarkozy ally Villepin remain stuck in single figures.

London Mayor/Assembly
If the French feel like they have an all-too-familar choice, spare a thought for Londoners, where all three main parties have selected the same candidates for mayor as last time. The Deja-vu will probably continue with the same result - Boris re-elected as Livingstone fails to win back any of the votes he lost last time. In the Assembly there will also probably not be much change - maybe a seat or two changing between Labour and Tories, the LDs will try to hold all their seats whilst the Greens will try to gain an extra one and, hopefully, the BNP will be wiped out of the Assembly (in reality they are no longer there as their AM defected to the English Democrats) but it will be nice to see them defeated in an election.

Local Elections
Most local elections in England will be for seats last elected in 2008, which was Labour's nadir in terms of results, so expect some significant gains for them, especially in the Metropolitan areas. I'd expect the LDs to have reached their nadir last year and to maybe hold a few more seats this time round relatively. The Tories were boosted by the anti-AV vote last May and will probably do slightly, but not significantly worse this time.
In Wales, Labour will make significant advances.

The most interesting contests will be in Scotland where the SNP will be trying to carry on from their phenomenal success last year in local council elections. They could take control of some of Scotland's biggest councils - my prediction they will get a majority in Dundee and become the largest party in Aberdeen and Edinburgh, whilst narrowly missing out on doing the same in Glasgow (although preventing Labour keeping their majority). At the other end of the scale, the question for the LDs is just how bad will it be?