Friday 4 March 2011

UKIP victory in Barnsley

Of course, they didn't actually take the seat (by a long way) but compared to expectations they must be the most delighted with their performance in the Barnsley Central by-election yesterday. So here are my idiosyncratic placings for how I think the parties did compared to expectations yesterday:

1. UKIP placed 2nd (their best ever result in Westminster poll), beating not only the Lib Dems, but also the Tories and not only saving their deposit but almost trebling their share of the vote to 12.2%

2. Tony Devoy (Independant) He had stood last May and got around 1.6%. Yesterday he increased that 5.2%, beating the Lib Dems and saving his deposit in the process and independants usually do badly in by-elections where the big parties can devote all their energy to it.

3. Labour They won the seat very comfortably (as they were always going to) and their share of the vote (Around 60%) is around par for the course under the circumstances - well up on last May, around back to 2005 levels, but well down on what they have achieved here in the past.

4. English Democrats 2.2% from not standing before is a decent performance (especially in a crowded populist right-wing field) and they managed to beat the Loonies this time.

5. BNP Disappointingly held their deposit and came fourth (ahead of the Lib Dems), but encouragingly their share of the vote still fell by almost a third since last May.

6. Official Monster Raving Loony Party For the second by-election in a row they avoided the wooden spoon.

7. Michael Val Davies (Independant) An independant from Devon standing in Yorkshire was always a bizarre idea, so 60 votes and last place is about what could be expected.

8. Conservatives The collapse in the Lib Dem vote was predictable, the Tory collapse was less so. On the one hand they stayed in third place, on the other hand their share of the vote halved to a lower level than it was during the 1997 Labour landslide.

9. Liberal Democrats 6th place and a lost deposit is one of the worst Lib-Dem by-election performances ever. Disastous. Their candidate (who stood in Barking against Nick Griffin last May) seems to specialise in telling people not to vote BNP rather than getting them to vote for him (Labour must love him).

So, overall, a good night for UKIP but whether that can be turned into seats at any level remains to be seen. A bad night for both the coalition partners, but in an election in which neither were ever in contention, I doubt that they will be too worried... yet.

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