Putting the Cat Amongst the Pigeons

In the run up to this year's Scottish election, there is currently a deart of good polling as to what is happening. The trend in what polling there has been has been to show Labour moving ahead and seeming certain to regain control at Holyrood. A poll last month by TNS had them on a massive 49% on the constituency vote to the SNP's 33%. Speculation seemed to be limited to how close Labour would get to an overall majority.

And then MORI come out with a poll this week out of the blue which has the SNP marginally ahead in both votes, which would really stir things up heading into the campaign. But which poll should we be listening too?

Well, actually, to me, both look rather suspect - firstly the TNS poll puts all the other parties (except SNP/Lab/LD/Tory) at about 4% combined for the regional list. This is a slump from well over 10% for small parties last time (and last time there was a squeeze on them) - doesn't quite seem believable. Then there's that 49% figure which seems just slightly too high even for a phenomenal Labour performance and Labour are still a party in recovery, not riding the crest of a wave.


That said MORI has the SNP on 37% which is more than they've ever got in any election ever with no obvious reason for this high water mark. MORI also has the Lib Dems actually increasing their regional list vote compared to 2007, against a backdrop of them being in virtual free-fall since last year's General Election.


So with both polls seeming rather suspect and no other companies (as yet) interested in this election, the only safe conclusion is that things may be closer than we thought and we don't really know how its likely to play out yet.