Barnsley Central

The second by-election of the parliament takes place next week in Barnsley Central following the conviction of sitting Labour MP Eric Illsey for expenses fraud. Despite the reasons for the election, there is absolutely no way that Labour will lose the seat. They had a majority of 30% in May last year and that was a very poor result for them. This is ultra-safe Labour territory.

That said here's a guide to what the parties will be looking for.

Labour (May 2010: 47.26%). We shouldn't judge Labour's expectations by the result in May. As mentioned above, Labour have previously polled 77% in this constituency. Now they are in opposition with both the other main parties in a coalition which I can't exactly see going down a storm in this part of the world, I would say that anything under 60% would be a disappointing result for them.

The Coalition parties were neck-a-neck here last May, just 6 votes between them. Both will be heading backwards. I would expect the Tory vote to hold up a little better here than the Lib-Dem one - those who voted Tory (rightly or wrongly) will probably be less unhappy about the government they have ended up with. For the Libs it might be a struggle to stay in double figures percentage-wise.

BNP (May: 8.94%) The BNP almost doubled their vote here last May and comfortably saved their deposit. Again, I would expect them to be heading backwards - the likes of the BNP traditionally do better under a Labour government than a Tory one, the party is in something of a mess nationally and they no longer have the angle of being a protest against the government here - it being a safe opposition seat. In their favour, they have a female candidate, and women are supposed to do better than men in by-elections for some inexplicable reason. They will be hoping to save their deposit again and stay ahead of the other right of tory parties. Lets hope they do neither.

The other right of Tory parties. UKIP almost saved their deposit in May and will be hoping to break that 5% barrier this time with the only other female candidate out of 9. The English Democrats have no track record in the constituency, so its hard to call, but they will at least be hoping to beat the Loonies this time (unlike Oldham East and Saddleworth). Personally I think they will struggle to make ground against the higher profile parties in a crowded right field.

Official Monster Raving Loony Party will be hoping not to come last (which would make it two in a row avoiding the wooden spoon)

Independants - there are two independants - one Tony Devoy is local and stood here in May and got 1.6%. He describes himself as True Labour. As with the BNP - he's lost the protest against the Labour government angle - protesting against a Labour opposition is less effective, so will probably be heading backwards. The other indy is from Devon and is probably on a hiding to nothing here.

So my prediction:

Lab 65.2%
Con 12.6
LD 9.3
UKIP 5.6
BNP 5.1
Local Indy 1.0
Eng Dem 0.7
OMRLP 0.4
Indy from Devon 0.1