Monday 5 April 2010

How to vote 2010?


Assuming that, as widely predicted, tomorrow Gordon Brown finally calls the election for May 6th, that gives me roughly a month to work out how I'm going to vote. I'm not exactly a floating voter - I know that I'm never going to vote BNP or UKIP, that I'm highly unlikely to vote conservative or SNP. That said, I'm still not totally sure how I will be voting. The choice, to say the least, is rather underwhelming. So, the first question is


Why bother to vote at all?


The Great British public seem rather switched off from mainstream politics at the moment. In theory, we should be looking at another 1997 moment this year - a high turnout seeing a landslide against the sitting government at the nadir of its popularity. And yet, the opinion polls are showing a close race, a low turn-out and probably a hung parliament. Why? To my mind it mirrors the 2004 presidential race in the US - Bush should have been a sitting duck, but there was no alternative who promised any better. Brown is not getting any more popular, the economy is still in a mess, but the public aren't turning to the tories in droves. Why?


- Firstly, all the scandals of recent years seem to be hitting all sides equally. The expenses row doesn't so much turn people off the government as away from the whole lot of them. Despite tory claims (I had to stop and stare when i saw the election poster with the slogan "I've never voted Tory before, but they're serious about sorting out MPs expenses" - does anyone really believe that?), one lot seems as bad as another. As one of my colleagues said, whoever you vote for, you still get a politician, and that, for most of us, is not appealing at the moment.

- Also, I reckon none of them are really convincing us that they have a coherent vision or strategy to get the country out of the economic mess that its in. I listen to them making policy announcement and I hear a range of vote grabbing ideas to tinker with the edge of a big problem rather than to seriously address it. And that's just the economy, the same pattern is repeated even more so in other areas of more long term concern - the environment, education, health, etc...
- Finally, even now, I reckon there are still a large number who are not ready to switch back to the tories after the memories of the Thatcher years.
So, if the choice is to pick the best of a bad lot, why vote at all? Because the alternative is even worse. A low turn-out plays right into the hands of the BNP. They will get their voters out on May 6th, and if the other parties don't, they will win seats. This is what happened last year in the European elections - the number of actual votes they received didn't increase that much, but because less people voted, they won seats. Bad as the alternatives might be, the idea of those racist, hate-filled bigots sitting in Westminster as representatives of the British public is absolutely repulsive to me.
So if I'm going to vote, how do I make my mind up. There seem to me to be a number of options here:
1. Vote for the best candidate.
Historically, this is the way the British system was set up - to vote for the person you feel will do the best job representing you.
In my constituency, Edinburgh North and Leith, I'm increasingly of the opinion that this would be the sitting MP - Mark Lazarowic (Labour). I've been impressed with both the speed and thoughtfulness of his responses whenever I've contacted him about issues that concern. I like the ways he keeps in touch with his consituents. I like the fact that he has stood up to his own party on a number of issues like the war in Iraq and the stand he takes on a number of issues that concern me - human rights, equality, etc... I think he has been a good consituency MP. Nothing I've seen from the other candidates so far, has been as impressive, but I'm open to persuasion.
2. Vote for the parties whose policies I agree most with.
Today's politics is more about party than individual, so which party is saying things I like the most. There are a number of online tools to help you find this out. Confusingly they tell me different things.
Vote for Policies allows you to pick your favoured policy from an unnamed choice of six (Tory, Labour, Lib-Dem, Green, UKIP and BNP) in 9 policy areas. It doesn't include more regional variations like the Scottish and Welsh nationalists, but has good depth on the policies. Unsurprisingly i picked 5 Green policies, more surprisingly 3 Labour and only 1 Lib-Dem, although there were one or two areas (like Education) where I would probably have picked none of the above if I could.
On the other hand Vote match on a number of sites, has more simple policy statements on an agree-disagree basis, but includes the nationalists and allows you to prioritise policy areas. It put me 73% in line with the lib-dems, 70% with the Greens, Labour and the SNP tied in the 60s and the conservatives on around 40%.
Which leaves me with pretty much the choice I had to start with.
3. Tactical Voting
The third option is the infamous tactical vote. My aims in tactical voting would be first to stop the BNP and secondly to stop an overall Tory majority. On past form, the Greens stand more chance of winning my seat than the BNP, so that doesn't figure. Similarly, I can't really see the tories taking Edinburgh North. It should be a two-horse race between Labour and the Lib-Dems. I guess in theory I would prefer a hung-parliament to a Labour majority, so that would point to a Lib-Dem vote (contrary to my feelings about the best candidate), but overall thats not much help.
4. The Protest Vote.
The final option is to go for the protest - don't like any of the 3 main parties (or the nats) so send them a message. For me, this would mean voting Green, both communicating my disenchantment and my concern for environmental issues. Please note, I don't accept the BNP as a reasonable protest - its a vote for hatred not a vote against the system. There is of course a danger in the protest, that you let the people you don't want in by the back door - unlikely in my constituency, but possible nationally, so it needs to be approached with caution.
So, I have a month to wrestle these issues into an answer. There is one thing I do know though. Its important that I vote. Its too important a right to squander by sitting on my backside and doing nothing. If only half of us vote on May 6th it will be a national disgrace and we will have no right to complain about whoever we end up with in Westminster.

4 comments:

Rupert said...

good post tony, and agree with a lot of what you say here, especially about voting, even if it is a protest.

it sounds as though your local sitting labour mp has done enough to deserve you vote though? especially as you have some tendencies in that direction in any case?

will you keep us informed of what you do decide to do?

Unknown said...

As my folks were saying to me just yesterday, the main reason the greens aren't as attractive an option simply because they don't have any experience running the country - but then again, maybe that would be a good thing.

Big fan of Vote for Policies - will have to try Vote Match - along with getting our names fixed on the Electoral Register (Mr & Mrs James, anyone?).

V for P split me as 25% Lib Dem, 25% Conservatory, 25% Greens and 25% UKiP (On welfare... no comment!). At least I'm start to get a sense of who I should be looking at.

David Wilson said...

Liked the overview and the online tools sound handy. will have a look at them later and see where they point me.

Tony said...

Thanks for the comments guys.

Rupert - not convinced about voting for Labour, even if I am impressed with the local MP. Still very much an open question with a 3 way choice - Labour-Lib Dem - Green.

Ben - You're not the first person I've come across who ended up plumping for UKIP's welfare policy. I'm hoping to find some time to do an in-depth look at some of the policies of the different parties. I think for me, UKIP's welfare policy is superficially attractive in terms of simplifying things into single payments, etc... (not totally convinced that works in practice) but the devil's in the detail - child benefit limited to the first three children only (might be arguable) and private tenants being forced to work for the council in order to earn their council tax and housing benefit - I'm not convinced that that is something that is promoting of human dignity. And that's without going in to the implications that councils would probably then lay off their own staff that they no longer need, thus increasingly the overall poverty. It sounds like the kind of idea thats dreamt up late at night over a few drinks with friends rather than a serious, workable political idea.