And so they're off ....

And so the race is officially under way and with the polls suggesting a fairly close outcome, I though it would be a good time to share some thoughts in a purely speculative way about what might happen over the next month. In particular, to focus on the smaller parties and ask the question is this going to be a two-horse race and what are some of the factors that might come into play.

The Big Squeeze
What happened in the last Scottish election was that a close race between Labour and the SNP resulted in a big squeeze of the vote for the smaller parties who lost seats as a result. Theoretically we face a similar situatuion here with the possibility of a close race and ahung parliament at the end of it. There is evidence (although not overwhelming) in the opinion polls that this is already happening and the Lib-Dem vote is already under pressure, let alone the smaller parties. It will undoubtedly be a factor, but it will be interesting to see how other factors come into play with it.

A Hung Parliament
If it still looks like being a hung parliament closer to election day, what effect does that. It could play further into the squeeze, pushing more people towards either Tory or Labour or it could play the other way as people realise that the smaller parties could end holding the balance of power. One key could be how far the tories are off an overall majority. Even on a bad day for them the Lib Dems will hold over 40 seats, which would give them a powerful say in most cases. However, if the tories are only a few seats away from a majority, they might not need them. In particular, there is one group of parties that won't be affected by any squeeze - the Northern Irish parties (neither labour nor conservative are fielding any candidates here). Anybody fancy a conservative government propped up by the DUP?

Personally I think that a hung parliament might be the best outcome for the country. I don't think any one party has the vision to get us out of our current situation and a result that forced the parties into collaborative working for the good of the country might generate the creative tension needed to actually make a difference.

TV Debates The one thing nobody can really predict is how much impact the televised debates between the three leaders will have as its never happened before in this country. The conservatives will doubtless fancy Cameron's chances to do well against Brown, but paradoxically I reckon they have the least to gain and most to lose from the debates: they are already ahead in the polls and Cameron will have high expectations to live up to. From the times I've seen him on Prime Minister's Questions, I'm not totally convinced Cameron is quite as good or charismatic a debater as is made out. At times he can be too keen to put his opponent down with a telling sound bite and can come across as a strange mix of smug and desperate. On the other hand, Gordon Brown will go into the debates with very low expectations on him and even a halfway decent performance could be seen as a success. Nick Clegg probably has the most to gain - he will go in with the lowest public profile, but as young leader with the intelligence and charisma to at least live with the other two, he could really come out well. Whether this would be enough to counter the effects of the squeeze remain to be seen.

Regional and Constituency Variations
Polls are not always reliable and most of the current predictions on the number of seats that will be won are based on the assumption of fairly uniform swings across the country (Polls based olely in marginal constituencies give a better, but still not wholly accurate picture). What happened at the last election was a huge amount of varition between regions. For example there were disproportionately large swings to the tories in North East seats where they were never going to win and very small swings in seats they were actually challenging in. Similarly, the Lib-Dems picked up lots of votes in areas like Glasgow where they were traditionally weak in what was seen as a warning tom Labour. This provides a slightly distorted starting point from which to measure a swing, even if we don't see a similar level of variation this time round. Another factor will be, on a consituency by constituency basis, how much impact it has where the previous MP was tainted by the expenses scandal - it might, just might, throw up some very odd results. And then there's also the fact that a traditional Lib-Dem strength has been in local organistion in constituencies they either hold or think they're in with a chance of gaining. They seem a wee bit better at this than the other parties and work those consituencies very hard. Whilst I don't think this means they will hold off the tories in every consituency where they are being challenged (especially in South West England), they might hang on to a few that national trends would suggest they'd lose and maybe gain a few from Labour that you wouldn't expect.

Pro-Tory or Anti-Labour?
What is not clear from the polls is how much of the conservative support is actually pro-tory and how much is anti-labour. The 97 election saw a large tactical "Anyone but Tory" vote, which has been a factor to a lesser degree ever since. There is still undoubtedly some of that sentiment around, now joined by a similar "Anyone but Labour" feeling. If a significant number of those saying they will vote Tory are actually "Anyone but Labour" voters, this could actually be exploited by other parties for a tactical vote. It would take a careful balancing act by the Lib Dems to simultaneously appeal to both anti-tory and anti-labour voters, but possible if they manage to present themselves as genuine third option. Similarly there is a balance between trying to appear different from the other two parties with their expenses scandals, etc... in order to appeal to those disenchanted from mainstream politics whilst maintaining a credibility as real challengers.

What About the Nationalists?
(I've yet to see any Welsh based polls, so will focus mainly on Scotland here). Since the advent of devolved parliaments, the trend has been for the nationalists to do well in the elections for their respective parliament, only for the vote to fall at the general election. That said, the SNP did very badly at the last general election and you would expect their vote to rise from that level. They have the aim of increasing from 7 to 20 MPs - that's just not going to happen with the squeeze and the Holyrood government not riding high in popularity. On the plus side for them I would expect at least 5 of their current seats to be fairly safe from the squeeze. So you could end up with the Scottish picture where the SNP increase their vote, but lose 2 seats, but the Lib-Dem vote falls (notably in the Labour heartlands where they polled unexpectedly well last time), but they actually pick up seats if a few key constitiencies go their way (Edinburgh South, Aberdeen South and on a really good night for them Edinburgh North and Leith).

And the rest?
The Greens main target will be Brighton Pavillion where they polled a respectable 20% last time round. They'll be hoping to increase that. Its a Labour seat, so with a strong anti-Labour vote there could be a real upset, but that's highly unlikely.

The BNP's Nick Griffin is sitting on 15% in Barking. Again, he's unlikely to take the seat on a good turnout, but it would be so nice to see his share of the vote go down.

UKIP's leader, Nigel Farrage, is the sole challenger to Commons Speaker John Bercow in Buckingham. Again, he's unlikely to win but both are amongst the most eccentric and outspoken figures in British Politics, so the hustings there should be worth the price of admission.


I'll hopefully write more about the tories and labour as the campaign goes on, but I'm personally hoping that this isn't a two horse race, but one with more variation and colour across the country, because I believe thats what we need both to get people re-engaged with politics and to find more creative solutions to our problems.