Woolas vs Watkins the verdict.

I must admit to be surprised at the verdict handed down yesterday in the appeal of the Oldham East and Saddleworth General Election result. Along with a lot of people, I had assumed that Phil Woolas would get a slap on the wrist and sent back to the Commons being told not to be a naughty boy again. However, it comes as a pleasant surprise to see the judges decide to stand up for some level of standards in campaigning and I wholeheartedly welcome the decision.

Whilst standards in campaigning generally have been pretty low and all parties have been guilty of some pretty nasty leaflets and campaigns in recent years, Mr Woolas' campaign was particularly distasteful. For the immigration minister to be so blatantly playing the race card in an area which has, in the not too distant past, had race riots is just unacceptable and parliament will be a better place without him. His statement after the verdict that parliamentary candidates need to be open to question from their opponents and voices should not be gagged, etc... is absolutely irrelevant - there is a huge difference between candidates being open to fair and honest questioning and them being subject to unsubstantiated libel posted to voters.

Which leaves the parties to try and deal with the fallout. Hopefully this verdict will be a warning shot across the bows of all parties to clean up their act. IT will also inevitably call into question the judgement of Ed Milliband as the new Labour leader, who appointed mr Woolas to a front bench position whilst he was under investigation for his campaign. Although the Labour party has quickly moved to expel Mr Woolas, some damage will already have been done.

And then we will have the by-election (probably early-ish next year). It will be an interesting election. In theory the three main parties could finish in any order, having finished fairly close together in May. Under different circumstances, I’d say the Lib-dems were out of it given their current unpopularity, but Watkins standing as the victim of these accusations might just stand a chance. Similarly, if there is a backlash against Labour, the Tories vould come through the middle (especially if they keep the same candidate).

I would make Labour favourites, as I don’t imagine the CSR plays well in this area, but they will have a selection dilemma. Pick somebody local and they could be tarred by the previous campaign. Parachute somebody in and it might not go down too well either.

I suspect that the campagn itself will come down to a past vs present focus. The Conservatives and Lib-Dems will both want to focus on the previous Labour campaign and Labour's failures in government. Labour will choose to focus on the present and future cuts to services under the coalition.

An early prediction, Labour will hold on with an increased majority, but Mr Woolas won't be missed at Westminster.