Thursday - some predictions

Scottish Elections

This should have been an election tailor-made for a Labour victory. Now in opposition at both Westminster and Holyrood with unpopular cuts being forced through. Two months ago, Labour looked unassailable for Holyrood - surely they couldn't blow it from here. Step forward Iain Gray and co. Most polls now have the SNP consistently in front. An admittedly rather suspect one for STV today had Labour down to the mid-20s in both votes. Whereas it looked like Labour would be reclaiming the seats it narrowly lost to the SNP 4 years ago (Glasgow Southern, Stirling, Edinburgh Eastern; Almond Valley, etc....) now it looks more like a question of which seats the SNP will add to therir gains from Labour - Linlithgow is the most likely to go, followed by Aberdeen Central, then maybe Clydesdale where the absence of a Lib Dem candidate could produce an unusual result. (There are also large votes for parties no longer standing in Glasgow Kelvin and Strathkelvin and Bearsden, which make them slightly unpredictable).

Both parties will look to capitalise on the Lib-Dems unpopularity. Labour will almost certainly take Dunfermline off them and will look to take Edinburgh Southern (where the sitting MSP has a strong personal vote and potentially a lot of Tory/SNP votes to squeeze). The SNP will be looking to take the Lib Dems two Highland seats and also Aberdeen South (where Nicol Stephen is standing down). There are even some rumours that Tavish Scott may be in trouble from a Independant in Shetland (I reckon he'll still be pretty safe though).

The fall away of Labour's campaign has left most of the Tory constituencies looking a bit safer. McLetchie should now hold Edinburgh Pentlands. Galloway might possibly be a gain for the SNP though. They might also lose some list seats

The Greens are of course focussing on the list vote. Their most likely sources of seats in order are (I reckon)
Lothian, Glasgow, Highlands, North East, Mid and Fife, South, 2nd Lothians, West, Central.

My prediction:
SNP 54
Lab 46
Con 15
LD 7
Grn 6
Margo 1

Wales
The Labour campaign here seems to have held up better. The may or may not get an overall majority - I reckon they might come just short. It might be a funny election in that the Tories could lose most of their constituencies, but still finish up overall. On the other hand Plaid and the LDs could both hold their constituencies and finish down. Also a chance of UKIP getting their first AM.

I'm going for
Lab 30
Con 15
Plaid 11
LD 4


AV Referendum
After an amazingly poor campaign by both sides, the referendum will be lost, by something like 59% to 41%.


Leicester South by-election
Lost amidst all the other elections, there's a by-election in Leicester South (a seat the Lib-Dems won in a by-election in 2003 - they won't get close this time). It will be another smooth ride for Labour.

Lab 57.3
Con 19.9
LD 14.8
UKIP 6.8
Loonies 1.5

English Local Elections
 Inevitable gains for Labour, but they are coming back from a very low point. I do get the sense that they have lost a wee bit of momentum and the results won't be as pleasing as they would have liked. They might finish about 1200 seats up (900 from the Tories; 300 from the LDs). What will be interesting to see to tell how much Labour are actually winning voters back, or how much the coalition is losing them, is how Labour fares against parties like the Greens where they are in contention in places like Brighton and Norwich. Looks like being a bad set of locals for the BNP though ;-)

Putting the Cat Amongst the Pigeons

In the run up to this year's Scottish election, there is currently a deart of good polling as to what is happening. The trend in what polling there has been has been to show Labour moving ahead and seeming certain to regain control at Holyrood. A poll last month by TNS had them on a massive 49% on the constituency vote to the SNP's 33%. Speculation seemed to be limited to how close Labour would get to an overall majority.

And then MORI come out with a poll this week out of the blue which has the SNP marginally ahead in both votes, which would really stir things up heading into the campaign. But which poll should we be listening too?

Well, actually, to me, both look rather suspect - firstly the TNS poll puts all the other parties (except SNP/Lab/LD/Tory) at about 4% combined for the regional list. This is a slump from well over 10% for small parties last time (and last time there was a squeeze on them) - doesn't quite seem believable. Then there's that 49% figure which seems just slightly too high even for a phenomenal Labour performance and Labour are still a party in recovery, not riding the crest of a wave.


That said MORI has the SNP on 37% which is more than they've ever got in any election ever with no obvious reason for this high water mark. MORI also has the Lib Dems actually increasing their regional list vote compared to 2007, against a backdrop of them being in virtual free-fall since last year's General Election.


So with both polls seeming rather suspect and no other companies (as yet) interested in this election, the only safe conclusion is that things may be closer than we thought and we don't really know how its likely to play out yet.