A Lesson in how not to do Expectation Management

So, over a week on from the local elections and what are to make of that. The dominant narrative in Scotland seems to be that it was a disappointing night for the SNP. Maybe that's not so surprising -I mean 2007 was a breakthrough year for them when they first overtook Labour at Holyrood and broke through in many new areas, using the new voting system to gain a presence on all councils bar Orkney and Shetland. Perhaps it's only natural that after 6 years in government they will have fallen back since then.

Except they haven't of course. The SNP vote share is up almost everywhere in Scotland compared to 2007 and the gained around 60 extra councillors. But two things have happened since then - firstly the stunning (and I suspect unrepeatable) result last May raised expectations that the Nats would sweep everything this May. And secondly, the SNP spin machine seemed to get carried away with their own success and started to talk up their chances - they were going to become the largest party in Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Glasgow - they might even claim a majority in the latter.

Of course, they did none of this. Hence they had a disappointing day. In fact, they only gained a majority in Dundee and the SNP stronghold of Angus. Except -- look at the facts, they increased their vote and gained seats in Edinburgh. In Aberdeen they actually won the popular vote with Labour only gaining more seats by virtue of better vote balancing and a bit of luck. In Glasgow itself, the SNP vote was up by 8% across the city, a 2.5% swing from Labour and they gained 5 seats relative to 2007. By most standards, a pretty good result and if they hadn't talked up their chances so much (and in doing so probably galvanised the Labour vote as well) the narrative might be different - of steady SNP progress in the Labour heartlands.

By contrast, Labour were at a low point in 2007 - unpopular in government at both Westminster and Holyrood, yet they kept majority control in Glasgow. In 2012, in opposition everywhere losing control of Glasgow should never have been in question (even given their own internal difficulties). But the SNP have enabled them to put keeping control across as a great success.

For the other parties, the Conservatives lost seats, perhaps a few more than expected. For the LDs it was grim, but maybe not quite as grim as it could have been (at least outside Edinburgh) and the Greens made slow but steady progress, doubling their seats in Edinburgh and gaining their first seats in Striling, Midlothian and Aberdeenshire.

The results have seen a number of unlikely Labour-Conservative coalitions form across Scotland. This was considered in Edinburgh too, but here Labour leader Andrew Burns was wise enough to realise the voters might not like it too much unless the Greens were involved, as well. However, the Greens were wisely unwilling to be involved in a coalition where their votes were not necessary (ie they had no real power) and so Labour went with the SNP as coalition partners. It's perhaps not the worst result for Edinburgh, but alot will depend on how adept Burns is at managing Cardownie. Time will tell.

Resist Vote Management

Tomorrow Scotland goes to the polls to elect new local councils. For local elections up here we now have the more proportional Single Transferable Vote system with larger wards electing 3 or 4 councillors and voters being asked to rank the candidates in order of preference.

This has led some parties in wards where they have more than one candidate issuing voters with vote management instructions or suggestions in their leaflets, so half the ward will be asked to rank candidate A 1st and candidate B 2nd and the other half the other way round. If you live in such a ward and have received such instructions then I'd invite you to stop and think before following them. Who does it really help? Sure, it helps the party to balance their vote and increase their likelihood of getting two (or more) councillors elected, but it's rather insulting to your intelligence. They're telling you that's there nothing to choose between the candidates, but make your own mind up - one might be a really strong candidate and the other a complete numpty (and there are far too many numpties on councils already). Decide for yourself.

The other line that some parties are taking, which I really cannot understand, is in some areas they are suggesting that voters just rank their candidates and then stop. For example, John Mason MSP (SNP) published his completed ballot paper on Facebook showing 1st and 2nd preferences for the SNP candidates and no other preferences. Does he really not care if the other 2 seats in his ward are filled by LDs, Labour, Conservative, Green or somebody else? It's nonsensical, when you are electing 4 councillors not to express at least that many preferences unless there are people that you really could not vote for.

So make your own minds up, most importantly use your vote, but use it how you see fit with as many preferences as you wish to add.

Some thoughts on the upcoming elections for Edinburgh City Council

It's nearly the start of May, which means it getting close to election time!

In Edinburgh this year, this means we get to vote for the wonderful city council. Now many people might feel that after the debacle over the trams last year, when it took the intervention of Holyrood to stop the muppets coming up with the most crazy solutions possible to a calamity largely of their own making, that none of them deserve to get back in and I would have some sympathy with that view.

Actually there are some decent councillors in all parties. Unfortunately there are also some complete numpties and in party politics, unlike in a bottle of milk, the cream doesn't always rise to the top.

What are they standing for?

This is a completely biased and firmly tongue in cheek view of what the various parties will do if elected, gathered from the various bits of paper they have so far put through my letter box (and the ones that I have put through other people's on behalf of the Greens).

SNP - are very proud of their council tax freeze and reducing council spending (that's what's known as cuts when the evil coalition do it at a national level). They're also very proud of taking absolutely no responsibility whatsoever for anything unpopular or cack-handed that the current (LD-SNP) administration has done - and there sure are a lot of them.
Conservatives  - seem to be very unhappy and very concerned about any number of different things. (Well, let's face it, as Tories in Scotland they have a lot to be unhappy and concerned about).
The Lib-Dems - seem to be very proud of lots of roadworks and holes in the ground and buiding sites- their leaflet featured at least 4 photos of such. Given the current state of Edinburgh this seems like a curious electoral strategy, but maybe they can see the writing on the wall and it's all just an elaborate electoral suicide note.
Labour -  have yet to give me a leaflet - odd as they actually do have a councillor for this ward. But I do know that they, in contrast to the LDs, are promising no more holes in the ground, ever, even if they're desperately needed. Oh, and they're hoping that you will have forgotten that they were in power up until 2007 and helped to contribute to the mess that the current lot have made such a mess of sorting out.


And nobody, but nobody is mentioning the Trams.

Being equally biased, but less tongue in cheek, the Greens are standing for promoting renewables and energy efficiency on a community level, safer cycle routes, protecting local businesses, giving local communities more say over how money is spent in their areas through initiatives such as £eith Decides and protecting the city's green spaces, amongst other things. I could go on, but you can read more here if you're interested.

So what's likely to happen?

One thing we can say for sure is that no party will have outright control of the council for the simple reason that no party is fielding enough candidates to take outright control.
The LD vote is likely to crash as it did last may and in the City Cenre by-election in August (when they lost almost two-thirds of their vote share). They recognise this - only fielding 1 candidate per ward and effectively giving up two seats before a vote has been cast. Many of the sitting councillors are not re-standing.
The SNP will probably gain seats, but maybe not do as spectacularly well as last May.
Labour should also be looking to pick up seats - 2007 was not a good year for them. But they should have been looking to make gains last year as well and look how that worked out for them.
Having looked into it, I'd hazard a guess that the post-election council chamber may look something like this:
SNP 19 (+7)
Lab 18 (+3)
Con 11 (no change)
LD 6 (-11)
Grn 4 (+1)
Although I'm hopeful and cautiously optimistic that there may be a few more Greens than that.

Now, according to the unwritten rules of Scottish politics, nobody wants to work with the Tories. The SNP group leader, the delightful Steve Cardownie, seems to be doing his best to alienate all possible coalition partners and even if an agreement could be reached for a traffic light coalition (red-orange-green) they may not have the seats for a majority.

Now, a minority administration might not be a bad thing, it could force a lot of issue-by-issue negotiation which could bring creative solutions to Edinburgh's many problems. It would require skill and delicacy in handling though, neither of which are qualities the various party leaders in Edinburgh seem to possess in much abundance. Which leads me to: 

An passionate plea to voters in Forth ward:
If you are thinking of voting SNP, give the guy who's not Cardownie your 1st preference and then put your ballot in the box without a 2nd thought. Edinburgh will be always in your debt.

Meadows/Morningside - a 2nd preference dilemma.

We all know who's going to get my first preference and I'm fairly confident that the Green candidate here, Melanie Main, will get in and do a great job as councillor. However, I'm not sure how to then express my other preferences. I have a choice of 6 other candidates: Conservative, Lib-Dem, UKIP, SNP, Labour and Pirate. It may all well be academic as Melanie may not be elected until the 3rd or 4th councillor for the ward, in which case the vote transfers will matter little, but just in case...

Normally my second choice would be Lib-Dem, but their candidate is now council leader Jenny Dawe, moving here from her previous ward as she was going to be outperformed there by her party colleague and lose her seat. I just cannot bring myself to express any preference for her at all. Similarly, I could never express any preference for UKIP except in a straight choice between them and the far right.

The conservative councillor actually seems to have done a decent job, but is probably the most likely to be elected first without the need for transfers. Besides which, I don't like what the party stands for and I'm proud of my record of never having voted for them (even a second preference). The same record applies to Labour and their councillor seems to have been rather anonymous in this part of the ward from what I've seen apart from failing to get elected as an MSP last year.

The SNP are not a party I'm overly fond of at the moment either and they've certainly contributed to the mess of the current council, but their candidate quite impressed me when he stood for Westminster in 2010.

So, I'm thinking:
1. Green (of course)
2. Pirate (as I may never have another chance to vote for a Pirate)
3. SNP (on the off-chance the final seat will come down to either them or the LDs).

UPDATE  - I've now had a leaflet from Labour and am none the wiser what they're standing for.

Looking forward to 2012 politically

Continuing the blog re-launch and switching to my other obsession. After looking back on 2011 cinematically, let's look forward to 2012 politically.

Truth be told, with the exception of the forthcoming City of Edinburgh Council elections (of which more later) the more interesting and meaningful elections this year are probably happening in other parts of the world, so I'm unapologetic about a slightly international flavour to this post, starting across the pond.

US Presidential Election
The year long roadshow has already started with the first Republican caucus in Iowa on Tuesday. Theoretically, Obama should be facing a tough re-election bid with the US economy struggling in the mire and relatively low approval ratings for the president himself. Of course, that would be dependant on the Republicans having a credible candidate and there is the nub of the matter.

Already retired from the race is Michelle Bachman - a rabid Tea-party-er (think Sarah Palin without any redeeming features). The winner in Iowa, Mitt Romney, won by a massive 0.01% of the total vote (hardly a ringing endorsement). He's probably the most moderate of the bunch with the possibility to appeal to the centre ground, but he's also a mormon and that ain't going to sit well with the Party's evangelical bible-belt base who could just sit at home were he the candidate, giving Obama crucial Mid-West swing states.

The man he narrowly beat, Rick Santorum, is much more on the right with some pretty hard-line views on things like homosexuality, abortion, etc... so much so that some naughty satirists came up with a new meaning for the word Santorum just to offend him (although I'd advise you not to google it). Like most of the other candidates, might galvanise the base but lose the rest of the country. Also still in the race are Ron Paul (a bit of a maverick with some allegations of racism in a publication he was responsible hanging over his head) and Newt Gingrich who's just pretty objectionable and Rick Perry.

Any of these could yet win the candidature (but are unlikely to win the presidency), or we could head into the Republican party convention with it all undecided (what is known as a brokered convention) in which case an as-yet-undeclared candidate may emerge from the floor - Jeb Bush is being mentioned. Whatever, I would expect Obama to be re-elected fairly comfortable although not with the landslide of 2008.

French Presidential Elections.
Another electorate facing a pretty poor choice this year are the French. Their presidential election (over two rounds) seems almost inevitably to come down to a choice between Sarkozy and socialist candidate Francois Hollande. Hollande is maintaining a healthy (but slightly shrinking lead) in the polls and the conventional wisdom is that Sarkozy is a goner. This would fit - across Europe almost every government that was in power when the financial crisis hit has been voted out at the first opportunity. The problem is that nobody (maybe not even Hollande himself) sees him as a president. He's more of a nearly man, who's been around for a long time without ever really achieving high office or anything spectacular. This might come into play more as the campaign progresses and I wouldn't be surprised to see Sarkozy pull back and maybe even pull of the big shock and win.

Of the other contenders, it seemed at one point last year that Front National leader Marine Le Pen might challenge Sarkozy for a place in the second round, but she seems to be fading away a bit. Centrist Francois Bayrou seems to enjoying something of a bounce and might catch Le Pen for third, but that's about his limit, whilst Left Front (Communist) Melanchon, Green Joly and fromer Sarkozy ally Villepin remain stuck in single figures.

London Mayor/Assembly
If the French feel like they have an all-too-familar choice, spare a thought for Londoners, where all three main parties have selected the same candidates for mayor as last time. The Deja-vu will probably continue with the same result - Boris re-elected as Livingstone fails to win back any of the votes he lost last time. In the Assembly there will also probably not be much change - maybe a seat or two changing between Labour and Tories, the LDs will try to hold all their seats whilst the Greens will try to gain an extra one and, hopefully, the BNP will be wiped out of the Assembly (in reality they are no longer there as their AM defected to the English Democrats) but it will be nice to see them defeated in an election.

Local Elections
Most local elections in England will be for seats last elected in 2008, which was Labour's nadir in terms of results, so expect some significant gains for them, especially in the Metropolitan areas. I'd expect the LDs to have reached their nadir last year and to maybe hold a few more seats this time round relatively. The Tories were boosted by the anti-AV vote last May and will probably do slightly, but not significantly worse this time.
In Wales, Labour will make significant advances.

The most interesting contests will be in Scotland where the SNP will be trying to carry on from their phenomenal success last year in local council elections. They could take control of some of Scotland's biggest councils - my prediction they will get a majority in Dundee and become the largest party in Aberdeen and Edinburgh, whilst narrowly missing out on doing the same in Glasgow (although preventing Labour keeping their majority). At the other end of the scale, the question for the LDs is just how bad will it be?