Saturday, 29 May 2010

The end of the election and of Laws?

A few further reflections:

Thirsk and Malton
The final result from the General Election is finally in and what does it show? It was always going to be a comfortable win for the Conservatives, but there were no signs of defections to UKIP from voters unhappy with the coalition. Similarly, despite speculation to the contrary, the Lib-Dems comfortably took second, taking the biggest share of the falling Labour vote, with no mass protest to the Liberal Party candidate. The conclusion, at the moment and in seats like this at least, voters are happier with the coalition and more willing to give it a chance than activists and commentators might have us believe. For Labour there are no signs of an immediate post-Brown recovery and they now need to sort themselves out a work out how to be a constructive opposition - so far their managing the opposition more than the constructive.

Appealing Results
Also in the news yesterday was the decision that the Lib-Dem candidate was to appeal the result in Oldam East and Saddleworth, where he lost by just over 100 votes. History would suggest that this is a bad idea. In 1997 Mark Oaten won Winchester for the Lib-Dems by just 2 votes from the Tories, the Tories successfully appealed, but in the ensuing re-vote lost the seat to the Lib-Dems by around 20,000 votes and it took them 13 years to regain it (even then, it might only have been due to Oaten's sexual indiscretions). It would seem the British electorate don't like a sore loser or having their votes chucked out by the courts. Given this, I find the appeal rather an ill-advised move unless they have decided that with the coalition they would never win this seat in the future anyway.

David Laws
I will admit to feeling some sympathy for Mr Laws. I don't believe that there was any intention to defraud the taxpayer. He may even have been claiming less than he would have been had he claimed for his partner's mortgage (as I believe he would have been entitled to) and I can respect his wish for greater privacy about his private life. However, at the end of day, he has broken the rules and to restore trust the new government not only needs to be clean, but to be seen to be clean, therefore Laws must go from the government, but probably not stand down as an MP.

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