Hidden amidst all the obvious April fools gags in yesterday's paper was a story that should have been a joke, but sadly wasn't. In a week when the Shadow Chancellor, George Osbourne, came off third best in a televised debate with Alastair Darling and Vince Cable (based on everything I've read about it - I admit I didn't see the debate myself), the tories receive a two point boost in the opinion polls. The reason for this clearly wasn't Mr Osbourne's logic-defying performance, nor was it some amazing new policy announced by David Cameron. No, the reason, so the analysts reckon, was the news that Samantha Cameron is pregnant.
Excuse me, am I the only one to find that a nonsensical and frightening turn of events. In what is promising to be a very tight election, even the possibility that the election could actually be decided not by which party's policies appeal the most or which leader is seen as the best potential prime minister, but rather by which leader's wife is the most fertile is absolutely ridiculous. Do people really think that this makes Mr Cameron a better prospect for Prime Minister. Recent history would clearly counsel otherwise - I mean its not like having Leo suddenly made Tony Blair a better Prime Minister or stopped him getting us involved in an illegal war in Iraq, is it? My conclusion from all of this is that democracy is not always such a great idea as some people are just too stuipid to be trusted with the vote.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
6 comments:
tony - i am really not sure you are right about the reason for the polling increase for the tories. perhaps you are doing an april fool a day late?
anthony wells, on uk polling report, has consistently said for the last week that the increase in the polls of 2-3% for the tories is due to the budget.
see: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
people are more worried about the economy following the budget and this has revered the labour rise in the polls due in part to increased optimism about the budget.
Thanks for the comment Rupert. But this was an increase in a weekly poll, which by my reckoning means an increase from a poll which itself would have been after the budget. Plus, the people running the poll attributed the rise to Mrs Cameron's pregnancy - they ran another poll asking people whether this was good for the tories and a significant number thought it made them more likely to be elected. Besides which I'm not sure that trusting George Osborne to sort out the economy is much more of a sign of sanity or good judgement than voting for a party because its leader's wife is pregnant!
Surely if the general population are swayed by such a non-item as a pregnancy, it doesn't mean it's because they're dim - it's probably got more to do with David Cameron appearing more relevant and human as a result.
As someone who has only ever voted in one general election before, I can say I have never felt more disconnected from the people who represent and make decisions for me in Parliament, both in Scotland and the wider UK. Picking the best of a bad bunch is not, to my mind, much of a democracy in and of itself - and if the guys who win through do so because average joe can relate more to him because he's managed to get his wife preggers, then good on him for a clever pre-election move!
I don't think taking away the vote from people who are supposedly 'stupid' would be the answer either. If we've failed them in terms of education in the first place they should certainly have the right to shape who gets to screw over the education system for their children, and their children's children, too.
Thanks for the comment, Ben, although I suspect you're taking my comments more seriously than they were intended. Those who know me know that I'm actually very pro-democracy. Sometimes its good to have a rant to emphasise a point though.
Your point about disenchantment from politics and picking the best of a bad bunch is a good one and one I plan to cover in another post soon. As one of my colleagues said, whoever you vote for, you still get a politician and that's not very appealing at the moment. On the other hand, I think its vital that we do all go out and vote as a low turn out will play right into the hands of fringe elements like the BNP.
tony ... i still don't think you are right. you are making an argument on one poll (not sure which one. the polls took a wee while after the budget to show an increase - as it takes the general public a wee while to digest the implications of the budget. the commentators make all kinds of spurious claims about why polls go up and down, but if you read anthony wells, as a professional pollster, he is pretty skeptical of most their interpretations. i don't seriously think Samantha Camerons pregnancy has any effect on the polls. i would bet a lot of people in the population are completely unaware that she is even pregnant, let alone change their vote because of it. i think the premise of your (i guess slightly tongue in cheek) post is flawed.
i wasn't either suggesting that the change in the polls is because people trust in osborne more. just that people more concerned about the economy affects the party in power. as they say, oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them. so the consistent movement in the polls since the budget are not due to the tory's doing well, but that the budget reinforces the impression that labour have mishandled the economy and it is time for a change.
Thanks for the comment Rupert, and there probably is some truth in what you say, but to push back at you - A Harris poll found that almost 30% of voters thought that Mrs Cameron's pregnancy would have a good effect for the tories in the election, so I'm not sure you can just dismiss it as having no effect. I would also say that from the quality of news coverage that alot of people get these days that I would also suspect that there are more people in this country who were aware that Mrs Cameron was pregnant than were aware of the actual details of the budget. There's a lot of people who just switch off from all talk like that, even though it has a huge impact on them.
Post a Comment