So, what to make of the SNP's first budget in power. All in all, I see it as a bit of a mixed bag - some good, some not so good. Yes, they have backtracked from some promises, especially over student debt, and completely fudged the issue of new police officers and reducing classroom sizes. To a certain extent this was inevitable - even without getting less money than they would have like from Westminster, it was always going to be debateable whether they could afford everything they'd promised, so, yes, I accept the argument that they have to prioritise what they think they can get through parliament.
And there is some good stuff in there - free prescriptions must surely be listed among these.
On the cautionary side, I would say that they are giving out a very mixed message environmentally - scrapping schemes which would promote air travel, putting more into public transport, but at the same time embarking on large road building/improvement schemes and removing tolls from the forth and tay bridges. The net result of which is probably a zero sum equation - little done to lower carbon emissions, but neither should they increase. My personal view, that's not good enough.
I also think, as Unison have warned, its a very tight budget for public services and it wouldn't take much in the way of unforeseen circumstances to break it.
I have yet to be convinced that the freeze on council tax is little more than an eye-catching gimmick until there are concrete plans to replace it. It will be interesting to see which authorities go along with it - given their dire financial situation currently, here in Edinburgh will be the most interesting one to watch.
Now, to get it through committee and parliament. From his responses to the various party leaders, Mr Salmond is clearly trying to woo the support of the Tories. He was far less dismissive to them and the tax incentives for small businesses will appeal to them. It remains to be seen if he has offered enough to get the greens on board as well. I kind of doubt it, which by my maths leaves him a vote short, but I may have got that wrong. Expect more serious negotiation - this is not the finished budget yet.
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I understand he is also trying to get the Greens on side to give him enough votes.
A few thoughts on the main proposals:
- CT freeze. This is a stopgap measure as they couldn't get a local income tax organised yet, which is understandable given the short timescale. I can't really see that case for this freeze as it is untargeted, expensive, and will have no impact on support for a local income tax. Will people like me really notice the extra £1.25 per month in my pocket (band D, 2 occupants, 2.5% increase)? Hardly. I also understand the figures they have agreed with CoSLA are vastly insufficient. Edinburgh would need about £25m for a freeze but has only been allocated about half that. Over 3 years the true cost would be £150m just for Edinburgh! The SNP plan is cynical - put pressure on Councillors through the media to freeze taxes. So in Edinburgh we can expect to see further reductions in care for older people and children with additional support needs (but at all costs make sure you keep those school buildings open!)
- Class sizes. I'm actually quite pleased they have dropped this as there is no evidence to show that a marginal reduction in class sizes (which is what we are talking about) benefits learning. It's much more effective to use the money on early intervention and support for families, which I'm pleased to see are at the centre of the Smarter objective.
- Prescription charges. This is the biggest waste of money. The poor don't pay charges anyway, so what is the point? Next time I get a prescription I'll save £6.85. Wow, when you add this to the CT freeze I'm really raking it in.
- Environment. I agree with you here, they really should have done better. I resent having to pay for other people to use bridges and to pollute the environment. Shouldn't the people that use these services pay for them? The SNP should be working with the UK Government on a sensible, sustainable energy policy. Instead they are going for populist measures for the motorist and easy political point scoring on nuclear power. Weak.
- Police. I'm not really well placed to comment on this as I'm not really sure what purposes they had in mind for the extra police.
- Graduate endowment. Scottish universities are underfunded compared to international competition, and I hardly think that a further squeeze is likely to promote Scotland as a world class, knowledge based economy. Shouldn't we (both the Government AND students) be paying more to universities? Obviously with appropriate subsidies for those on low incomes to reduce disincentives.
I think Gordon Brown set it out quite nicely in a recent speech that Government should try to achieve 3 objectives with policy any budgets - economic growth, social cohesion, and environmental sustainability. I don't really get a feeling that the SNP understand this or that they have a cohesive plan for Government that involves anything other than soft-left, populist measures. Their definition of a hard choice seems to be which interest group to buy off.
Thanks for your comments Ant.
I totally agree about the Ct freeze and the environment - which is why I don't think Salmond will get the greens on board the way it stands at the moment. Also agree about Uni funding which I think will leave many students who voted SNP let down.
Class sizes - I'm going to disagree here. Working in schools, I would have to say any reduction is a good thing, even if it is only a step to make further reductions in the future. The young people, whatever their issues, I work with almost all get on better the smaller the class. The reduction may only be marginal now, but it makes the next reduction easier.
As to perscription charges - yes, it will be the middle class, middle incomes who will benefit most in fininancial terms. Interestingly, that has always been the case with the NHS and was one of the arguments against it in the first place - but by making something a universal right, rather than an act of charity or a means tested benefit, you change the nature of it. So, in terms of the principle, of free universal health care for all, I support it. There is a problem with a lack of take-up of healthcare amongst, in particular, men from poorer socio-economic backgrounds. I think this measure will do little by itself to change this, but as one of a number of measures that were being talked about in the election campaign (like outreach clinics) could bear fruit - this is one of the few areas that theSNP actually made more sense than the others in the campaign.
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