All the main political leaders have decided to holiday in the UK this summer - how much this is personal preference, how much PR or how much fear of being caught off guard by an early election is a matter of speculation. So will we be looking at an October election?
Gordon Brown has certainly made a successful start to his term in office. He has managed to present himself as different both in character and in policy to Tony Blair. He is projecting the idea of himself as a serious politician with something real to offer, distancing himself both from George W Bush and the war in Iraq, wanting to put the focus on to issues like Darfur (and, as an aside, whilst I celebrate that we finally have a UN resolution on Darfur which draws on African strength and has teeth, I want to cry that we should have been here several years ago!). Of course, the distance from Bush makes political sense on both sides of the Atlantic - Bush has only 17 months in office left, and with the strong possibility of a democrat in the White House soon, a strong tie to the Bush administration probably does Brown no favours.
Domestically, he has come up with a raft of new ideas and enjoyed a considerable "bounce" in the polls. This is by no means a disaster for Cameron's conservatives - in fact, it was almost inevitable. What Cameron needs to do is to keep his party together and not panic. He also needs to come back from his holiday fighting and show what he actually stands for, if not in concrete policies, at least in key principles - other than the environment, nobody is yet clear where Cameron's conservatives actually stand. However, the signs are not good in Tory land - the sound of sharpening knives can be heard and they are already eyeing each others backs for a place to put them. The worst thing for the Tories would be for Cameron to follow the example of his three predecessors, starting out by trying to modernise and move to the centre, but at the first sign of trouble retreating to the unelectable right. His question about Europe during question time last week played right into Gordon's hands.
Meanwhile, the lib-dems under Menzies Campbell continue their rather convincing impression of a rudderless ship. They are going nowhere.
So will Brown call an early election. I think he'll want to, not only to take advantage of the disarray in the opposition ranks, but also to get his own mandate from the country, not a borrowed one from Blair. The other factor is, of course, Iraq. He's managed to distance himself from the war so far, but getting Britain disentangled from the situation is going to take a lot more time and he is now the one who is ultimately responsible. So an election before he gets too bogged down in the fallout will be desirable. But not October - I think Brown will feel its too soon. I also think he'll feel (probably justifiably) that he has the substance and the ideas to keep ahead of Cameron, maybe even do more damage to the Tories for a while longer. And of course, the Labout party is currently broke - they cannot really afford an October election. I think he'll go for Spring 2008.
When it does come, it really will be a two horse race - I think the Lib-Dems will lose seats, the Tories will consolidate in the South, but make no progress in the North and Gordon Brown will have a slightly increased majority. But that's just speculation.
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I'm sure you've heard the view I have been spouting for ages that Brown is certain to call an election after no more than 12 months in power. He needs the mandate to govern and it will be his best chance, simply because he is not Blair. The near certainty that the Tories would implode again as a result of the Brown Bounce must have helped as well.
Thanks Matthew. Not convinced the implosion of the tories is a certainty, but Cameron now does need to come up with a bit more substance and bit more back bone to keep the lunatic fringe in order and stop them pulling the party too far right again. OK, take that back, so it is almost certain.
I wouldn't say that Brown definitely needs to go to the country for a mandate. In the UK we elect a party, not a President, and it is up to Labour who they choose for their leader (and therefore PM). His main concern will be to maximise his time in office.
Of course, if he thinks he can beat the Tories then I'm sure he will not delay. However, given that Labour's finances are so poor, will it even be realistic to go to the country by next spring? Also, whilst it is clear that Labour are doing much better overall, the next election will be decided in the marginals. I'd be interested to see how things are in those constituencies.
There is another equally valid strategy for Mr Brown to adopt - wait it out. Take 2 years, raise some funds, and see if the Tories can manage to hold it together. I suppose it depends on whether you the extra time is likely to (a) give Cameron time to flesh out his proposals and look more substantial or (b) give the Tories more time to fall to pieces in a spectacular manner. I honestly couldn't say which I think is more likely.
Hi Ant.,
Nice to hear from you. I agree that Brown does not need a new mandate, but I think he will strongly want one. Apart from anything else it will reinforce his difference from Blair and that he can be the change that people want.
I think the news from yesterday that Labout have appointed a general election director indicates that they are gearing up to go within the next year.
I take your point about the marginals, but from last time round the regional variations are just as important - crucially the tories need to make progress in areas north of the midlands and they seem to actually be falling back in those areas and the signs that they're drifting back towards the "traditional" right are going to be counter-productive in those areas. I expect them to solidify their base in the south east, to take seats from the lib-dems in the west country and possibly the scottish borders, but possibly to lose seats to labour in London and some other areas.
There will also be the odd seat where a single issue will sway things and you'll get an independant or an odd result. If some opinion polls are to be believed, the Greens might win Brighton Pavillion, but I'll believe that when I see it.
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