A Lesson in how not to do Expectation Management

So, over a week on from the local elections and what are to make of that. The dominant narrative in Scotland seems to be that it was a disappointing night for the SNP. Maybe that's not so surprising -I mean 2007 was a breakthrough year for them when they first overtook Labour at Holyrood and broke through in many new areas, using the new voting system to gain a presence on all councils bar Orkney and Shetland. Perhaps it's only natural that after 6 years in government they will have fallen back since then.

Except they haven't of course. The SNP vote share is up almost everywhere in Scotland compared to 2007 and the gained around 60 extra councillors. But two things have happened since then - firstly the stunning (and I suspect unrepeatable) result last May raised expectations that the Nats would sweep everything this May. And secondly, the SNP spin machine seemed to get carried away with their own success and started to talk up their chances - they were going to become the largest party in Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Glasgow - they might even claim a majority in the latter.

Of course, they did none of this. Hence they had a disappointing day. In fact, they only gained a majority in Dundee and the SNP stronghold of Angus. Except -- look at the facts, they increased their vote and gained seats in Edinburgh. In Aberdeen they actually won the popular vote with Labour only gaining more seats by virtue of better vote balancing and a bit of luck. In Glasgow itself, the SNP vote was up by 8% across the city, a 2.5% swing from Labour and they gained 5 seats relative to 2007. By most standards, a pretty good result and if they hadn't talked up their chances so much (and in doing so probably galvanised the Labour vote as well) the narrative might be different - of steady SNP progress in the Labour heartlands.

By contrast, Labour were at a low point in 2007 - unpopular in government at both Westminster and Holyrood, yet they kept majority control in Glasgow. In 2012, in opposition everywhere losing control of Glasgow should never have been in question (even given their own internal difficulties). But the SNP have enabled them to put keeping control across as a great success.

For the other parties, the Conservatives lost seats, perhaps a few more than expected. For the LDs it was grim, but maybe not quite as grim as it could have been (at least outside Edinburgh) and the Greens made slow but steady progress, doubling their seats in Edinburgh and gaining their first seats in Striling, Midlothian and Aberdeenshire.

The results have seen a number of unlikely Labour-Conservative coalitions form across Scotland. This was considered in Edinburgh too, but here Labour leader Andrew Burns was wise enough to realise the voters might not like it too much unless the Greens were involved, as well. However, the Greens were wisely unwilling to be involved in a coalition where their votes were not necessary (ie they had no real power) and so Labour went with the SNP as coalition partners. It's perhaps not the worst result for Edinburgh, but alot will depend on how adept Burns is at managing Cardownie. Time will tell.