The Labour Leadership.

I've not put up many political thoughts for  while, so I thought it was time I shared something about the race for the Labour leadership as it heads towards decision time.

Firstly, I have to say a bit like the TV leaders debates before the election, none of the candidates on offer are exactly inspiring me and standing out as the next Labour prime minister.

Secondly, I do find the fact that the unions still have a block vote of a third in deciding the leader slightly strange in modern politics, but maybe I'm just not left wing enough to get it, but it does mean that somebody who is both a party and union member gets two votes.

As to the runners and riders.

David Milliband is probably the favourite still. He has the style certainly, but I'm not sure that there's all that much else to him. He's like Blair without the newness factor. He also brings the added liability of the most closely tied in to previous Labour administrations which could tarnish him on the economy, Iraq (and human rights abuses there - Hague has commissioned an enquiry into this). Imagining a leaders debate between him, Cameron and Clegg its hard to imagine there being much difference or much to excite with any of them.
Chances of becoming leader: Good. Jack Straw's backing is a good sign here
Chances of winning the next election as leader: Toss a coin. If Cameron gets pulled to far to the right of the centre or becomes very unpopular, quite possibly. Otherwise, it would be hard to tell.
Would he make a good PM? I've seen little so far to suggest so.

Ed Milliband is still struggling to come out from David's shadow. He's probably second favourite now through picking up union support, but that could be a poisoned chalice if the unions become increasingly militant in the face of Tory cuts, a leader strongly linked to them could doom Labour at the next election and play into a Cameron landslide.
Chances of becoming leader: Reasonable if he doesn't fall too far behind his big brother
Chances of winning the next election as leader: Very slim
Would he make a good PM? Doubtful


Ed Balls is definitely the fieriest candidate. Seems to relish being in opposition more than he did being in government. Might cause the most trouble for the government over the next 4 years until the next campaign starts. At that point, I suspect he would become a liability, although he has a good brain and says some smart things, I'm not sure he's electable.
Chances of becoming leader: Not out of it, by any means
Chances of  winning the next election as leader: Very slim. He's unlikely to be the next Labour PM, although he might be married to the next Labour PM.
Would he make a good PM? No.

Andy Burnham lacks some of the exposure of the three above him. Also lacks experience, but has possibly impressed me most in some of what he has said.
Chances of becoming leader: Slim, unless he finds someway through the middle as a compromise candidate.
Chances of  winning the next election as leader: If he grew into the role over the next four years, it might happen.
Would he make a good PM? He could be a solid, team-leader kind of PM if not an inspirational visionary.

Diane Abbott is the rank outsider, but its good to have her in the race. Never having been in cabinet or shadow cabinet, she would be an unlikely choice, but she does at least shake up the contest a bit being neither white nor male.
Chances of becoming leader: Next to none, lacks support from at least two of the three voting blocks.
Chances of winning the next election as leader: None - she's too far to the left.
Would she make a good PM? No, unfortunately not, and I think she knows it. That's not why she's in the race.