Final Thoughts on the Scottish Elections

I was standing at a bus stop last week in the middle of the day, eavesdropping (terrible habit, can’t condone it, but sometimes you can’t help yourself) on two middle aged, working class women discussing tactical voting (or how to get rid of Labour without getting the SNP – the Lib Dems were going to do quite well with this totally unrepresentative sample of the Edinburgh electorate). Anyway, in a weird kind of way this restored some of my faith in the political process. I think the electorate are often a lot more canny than they are given credit for by politicians. At the last Scottish elections, for example, Lothian region returned 4 out of 7 regional MSPs from smaller parties or independent candidates – not a fluke, I think and I trend I hope we will see replicated again this week.

One of the strengths of the Scottish Parliament has been the voice given to the smaller parties, and if, as seems likely, we have a minority government after Thursday, these smaller parties will have an even larger part to play. I suspect the turnout is going to be low on Thursday (I wouldn’t be surprised if it wasn’t much over 50%, unfortunately) which means that the parties who get their voters out will do better than expected. Its also worth noting that opinion polls for the Scottish elections have consistently failed to predict the outcome of the regional votes, with smaller parties often doing much better than expected, and I suspect the same will happen this time.

Anyway, having thoroughly critiqued the Christian parties in my previous posts (Christian Politics Revisited and Family Values and the Scottish Elections), I thought it only fair to share some thoughts on the other parties, together with some predictions, so I can look a complete fool come Friday morning!

Labour – the labour candidates I’ve seen look thoroughly demoralised already. I think they know they’re in for a hiding. They’ve also been so busy trying to distance themselves from the Labour government in Westminster, they don’t seem to have done a very good job of putting forward what they’re actually standing for. I suspect, if their supporters are equally demoralised, they might struggle to get their voters out on Thursday. If they have a good day they might only lose 10 seats, if it goes badly maybe twice that or more. will win 37 seats (-13)

SNP – The SNP will be the largest party after Thursday. My feeling with them, is that apart from the referendum, they’re trying a bit too hard to be all things to all men, supporting anything that’s popular and it will be interesting if they do form a government to see what gives first. Not sure how much I trust Alex Salmond, but the nightmare scenario is that he doesn’t win his own seat (it could happen) and we get Nicola Sturgeon as first minister! Overall I think they’ll gain between 10-15 seats, the balance in the system meaning that for some of the constituencies they win, they’ll lose some regional seats. 41 seats (+13)

Lib-Dems – will be desparate to keep the debate off Trident as their stance doesn’t come across as well as the easy “No” stance of other parties. There is an element of sitting on the fence about it, but its also quite a considered, thought-out approach, but not one which distils easily into a soundbite. However, its not a stance I agree with them on – my own view trident should go as soon as possible. That apart, I like what I’m hearing from them about health, education, local taxation and the environment, but am not over-enamoured with my local candidate. I think they will do well in some areas – I think Edinburgh could be particularly rich pickings for them, keeping the two seats they have and maybe picking up one or two more, perhaps making Malcolm Chisholm one of the big name casualties of the day in Edinburgh North. The advantage being in Lothians, they have no list MSPs to lose if they pick up seats here. Overall, I think they’ll finish one or two seats up. 19 seats (+2)

Conservatives – for all David Cameron’s friendly face of tory-ism, Scottish leader Annabel Goldie comes across as more of an old-fashioned conservative. I think they’re weak on the environment and I’m not convinced by their arguments that their policies will benefit the least well-off sections of society. The candidate in my constituency was particularly poor answering how his party would address the gap between rich and poor. Overall, I think they might pick up a few constituencies from Labour, but will lose on the list anything they gain on the constituency and finish up exactly where they started. 18 Seats (no change)

Greens – unsurprisingly, are probably the best on the environment, but also sound reasonable on health, tax, etc… I do take issue with their plans to indiscriminately abolish denominational schools, but otherwise like what I’ve heard from them. I think they might do better than expected, holding what they’ve got and maybe picking up one or two other seats. 9 seats (+2)

Scottish Socialist/Solidarity – I anticipate that the split will also split their votes, leading to a bit of a wipe out of the seats they have. Unfortunately, I suspect Tommy Sheridan might hang on in Glasgow, although anybody who campaigns with George Galloway deserves to lose!. I hope Colin Fox holds onto his seat in Lothians, but it will be a close run thing. 1 for SSP, 1 for Solidarity (-5)

Senior Citizens Party – (oops, can’t quite remember their proper name). Bizarrely, they might be the main beneficiary of the socialist wipe out. Could also do well because their core support are possibly the most politically motivated, committed and active part of the population and will vote on Thursday. They’ll hold the seat they have and maybe add one or two more. 3 seats (+2)

Independants – Margo MacDonald will hold her seat in Lothians, and good for her. Dennis Cannavan’s decision not to stand again in Falkirk West for family reasons could give Labour its one solitary gain of the night. That’s usually one of the first seats to declare, so it might be an indication of how things are going - if Labour don’t win it back, it will be a very bad night for them indeed! 1 seat (-1)

UKIP - Thankfully an irrelevance in Scotland, and long may they remain so. 0

BNP - in the words of one Radio 4 comedian – “they are racist, and if you vote for them, so are you”. 0

I think that about sums it up – I hope you will vote, if you’re entitled to do so, whoever you vote for. As for me, the constituency vote will probably go Lib Dem for lack of a better option and the regional vote will be Green.

Anybody think they can do any better with predictions of want to try and change my mind about things - please add your comments here.

A Final thought - my favourite election poster so far - "Vote SNP for longer school holidays". OK, so that was from a mock-election in one of my schools, but it appealed to me!